In Episode 68 of The Real Finds Podcast, we sit down with Hunter Kosar, founder of Twisted Nail, a Texas-based logistics firm specializing in aggregate delivery for major commercial projects. But this isn’t just a story about hauling rocks.
It’s about the silent unraveling of the construction pipeline and how that freeze is starting to reshape the commercial real estate (CRE) market in real time.
From solar farms delayed by tariffs to truckers forced into desperation bidding wars, Hunter lays out a powerful and sobering portrait of a supply chain under pressure. The story he tells offers a glimpse into what’s really happening beneath the surface of CRE development today.
Hunter doesn’t mince words: “The market is in survival mode right now.”
At Twisted Nail, which sources and hauls aggregates like dirt, sand, and gravel for infrastructure and commercial projects, business is usually booming by spring. But in 2025, the phones are quiet.
Despite record bidding volume in Q1, almost nothing has broken ground. Why? Because institutional developers are hitting pause. Tariff uncertainty especially around solar and steel has pushed project input costs sky-high. The result? A cascade of delays.
And when projects delay, so do payments. Truckers sit idle. Quarries cut production. Brokers brace for lean months.
For commercial real estate, this is a flashing red warning light. If you’re a developer, lender, or investor waiting on vertical construction to start, expect to wait longer.
Hunter’s insight is uniquely valuable because of where he sits in the supply chain: at the literal ground level.
Most projects start with excavation, grading, and soil import/export. Miss on your dirt estimate, and you can blow your budget before you pour a foundation.
“We’re not selling a product,” he says. “We’re selling efficiency—how fast, how predictable, how cost-effective we can get this dirt from the ground to your site.”
His firm doesn’t own quarries or produce materials. Instead, it provides a transparency and logistics layer to connect general contractors with hundreds of small, often invisible, vendors. In a CRE market chasing leaner budgets and shorter timelines, that kind of coordination is gold.
But when the volume drops? CRE project starts collapse with it.
According to Hunter, this isn’t a crash—it’s a slow freeze. The warning signs are everywhere:
Massive projects put on hold as input prices become volatile
Truckers undercutting each other just to stay afloat
Quarries quietly reducing output without making headlines
Developers waiting for policy clarity before moving forward
This softening isn’t just affecting infrastructure. It’s directly impacting commercial real estate development, especially projects requiring heavy site work, such as distribution centers, large-scale retail pads, multifamily developments, and energy-adjacent sites.
Kosar puts it plainly: “If you have a 1,000-acre solar project and tariffs make your panels 100% more expensive, you wait. And if 10 projects wait? The whole chain slows down.”
Twisted Nail’s response to market slowdown has been to double down on process.
Kosar built his business on the back of financial modeling and operational efficiency. He realized early that most contractors—especially truckers—had no idea if they were making money on a given job. They’d just bid, drive, and hope.
Sound familiar? It should. That same behavior exists in pockets of commercial development, especially among firms that scaled aggressively in a zero-rate world.
Today, Hunter’s lean, tech-forward team can outbid bigger players without undercutting. “I need 15 trucks to be profitable,” he says. “Other guys need 90 just to break even.”
In a frozen market, that efficiency is the difference between surviving and exiting.
What does a Texas trucking broker have to do with Chicago industrial space or Dallas multifamily?
Everything.
CRE depends on construction, and construction starts with site logistics. If the trucking market collapses or consolidates dramatically developers will face:
Tighter capacity when the rebound comes
Longer lead times to secure earthwork contractors
More volatility in bid pricing and change orders
Limited access to local suppliers without embedded networks
Hunter warns that when projects do come back online, likely this fall or early 2026, there won’t be enough operators left to handle the wave. Many will have exited. Prices will spike. Delays will mount. The CRE community would be wise to plan for that squeeze now.
Beyond macro commentary, Hunter’s perspective reveals something deeper: the human cost of inefficiency and misaligned incentives.
Truckers many of whom are owner-operators—are often treated as disposable labor. But they’re entrepreneurs. And when you squeeze them on margins, underpay, or delay invoices, they leave the market or worse, bid recklessly just to keep the wheels turning.
Those bad bids lead to blown schedules and change orders that ripple all the way to investors and LPs.
Reputation matters. Relationships matter. Resilience matters.
And in the construction-to-CRE pipeline, operators like Hunter Kosar may become more important than ever.
While much of the logistics industry is fragmented and old-school, change is coming.
Kosar sees increasing consolidation on the material supply side. Mom-and-pop quarries are being acquired by vertically integrated players who supply their own asphalt or concrete production. That means fewer public suppliers and more closed loops.
He also sees a new generation of brokers—tech-forward, trust-based, and efficiency-obsessed—stepping in to fill the coordination void.
In CRE, we talk about smart buildings, ESG, proptech. But perhaps the smarter move is looking downstream—at the logistics layers that actually move the materials, not just manage the leases.
The slowdown Hunter describes isn’t splashing across headlines. But it’s real. And for commercial real estate stakeholders developers, lenders, contractors, and investors, it’s a clear signal:
The construction supply chain is under pressure. And what breaks downstream today becomes tomorrow’s CRE headwind.
Now is the time to strengthen your network, pressure test your project timelines, and deepen your relationships with the people moving the material, not just the money.
Because when the ground shifts, you want someone like Hunter Kosar on speed dial.
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